Those touchdowns were some of the least impressive throws and decisions Rodgers made last season.
But it struck me just how arbitrary touchdowns were as I watched Rodgers play pitch-and-catch with Davante Adams for a score from the 1-yard line in Week 8. Most of those quarterbacks finished first or second in passing DYAR and DVOA as well. Quarterbacks have won that award in each of the last eight seasons, and those eight winners either paced the league in passing touchdowns or finished within two touchdowns of first place. Touchdowns may mean less to an average Football Outsiders reader than they do to an average NFL fan or fantasy player, but they motivate MVP votes. After the next week, everyone seemed to share that perspective. That middle performance spurred possibly partial commentary that Rodgers had similar statistics in the first half of 2020 as he did in each of his previous MVP seasons. But then he threw four touchdowns in Week 7, three touchdowns in Week 8, and four touchdowns again in Week 9. Rodgers fell temporarily out of the MVP race last October after he threw for just 160 yards, no touchdowns, and two picks in a Week 6 loss to Tampa Bay. And while that research informs our projection that Rodgers will produce at about halfway between his 20 efficiencies this year, it also provides a blueprint to try to find the next veteran quarterback who will bounce back after a disappointing fantasy season. My research suggests that Rodgers was more similar in 20 than his touchdown totals those seasons can illustrate without extra context. But in retrospect, I wonder whether the Packers and the public put too much stock in Rodgers' touchdown totals, first to rationalize their beliefs in his decline and then to paint the picture of his vindication. The media wrote Rodgers' MVP story as a tale of a lover scorned. Maybe that second mistake became motivation. The Packers would likely not have made the Love pick at all if Rodgers had thrown more than 51 total touchdowns in 20. (Case in point: the New Orleans Saints, who went 9-1 in games not started by Drew Brees the past two seasons because they had reliable backups.) Second, they underestimated Rodgers the player. A first-round investment in quarterback Jordan Love would have been a difficult sale, but the team could have spun it as a bid to secure their chances in case of a Rodgers injury. First, they failed to communicate their plan. If you cut through the tornado of Aaron Rodgers drama from the past 16 months, you will find that the Packers made two main mistakes.
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